Occurrence Grade Index Model of Dynamic Early Warning for Wheat Powdery Mildew in Typical Region

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362. 2015.05.014

Abstract

Abstract: As being prone to wheat powdery mildew, Henan and Hebei province are affected severely by wheat powdery mildew. Through analysis on variable characteristic of disease index for winter powdery mildew, the disease index data in Nanyang city was interpolated at week scale and interpolated at pentad scale in Zhengding, Xinji, Guantao and Cixian. Based on disease observation data for wheat powdery mildew from 2001 to 2010 and daily meteorological data for corresponding period, the key factors and key period affecting occurrence grade for wheat powdery mildew were selected using rank correlation analysis and path analysis. Occurrence grade index model of dynamic warning for wheat powdery mildew was built based on Bayes criterion. The results elucidated that the variation of disease index for winter powdery mildew conformed to Logistic curve, and interpolation effect was well. The key factors for wheat powdery mildew occurrence grade in Nanyang were actual occurrence grade of previous week, humidity from the previous one week to current week, sunshine hours from the previous two week to current week and rain coefficient from the previous three week to current week. Which for wheat powdery mildewoccurrence grade in Hebei were actual occurrence grade of previous pentad, mean temperature from the previous three pentad to current pentad, precipitation from the previous three pentad to current pentad, rain coefficient from the previous three pentad to current pentad. The entirely accurate rate of occurrence grade index model of dynamic warning for wheat powdery mildew was above 85%, and accurate rate of nearly same grade exceeded 90%. The model can be well applied in early warning for wheat powdery mildew at the short time scale. The results can provide useful information that contributes to a better understanding of occurrence grade for wheat powdery mildew in Nanyang and Hebei region and help for the policy formation of disease protection management.

Key words: Wheat powdery mildew, Disease index, Rank correlation analysis, Path analysis, Bayes

ZHANG Lei1, HUO Zhi-guo, JIANG Yan, WANG Li. Occurrence Grade Index Model of Dynamic Early Warning for Wheat Powdery Mildew in Typical Region[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(05): 631-639.

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